Since October, near daily cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah — the powerful Iranian-backed militia and political movement based in Lebanon — have killed hundreds and forced tens of thousands from their homes. The hostilities have caused fears that the relatively contained violence could spiral into an all-out conflict.

Deadliest Attack Yet: Majdal Shams:

There is an attempt to avert full-scale confrontation amidst like continued strikes and counter-strikes. However, the risk of miscalculation hung palpable, culminating with the deadly attack on Saturday in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-held Golan Heights. Israel accused Hezbollah of carrying out the strike, killing at least 12 people, including children—the deadliest in the ongoing hostilities. “Israel will not overlook this murderous attack,” declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Hezbollah will have to pay price heavy losses far beyond they have incurred to it by now.” Hezbollah denies it was behind the attack.

Escalation Risks Amid Miscalculations:

Hours before the damage of the attack was clear, Hezbollah have taken the responsibility for the targeting of the Hermon Brigade using an Iranian-made Falaq missile. However, the base is about 3 kilometers (2 miles) away from the site of the attack, presenting the chance that the missile may have missed the target. Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari even said intelligence indicated that it was Hezbollah’s doing, dismissing as a “lie” a denial by the group. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the comment, stating that from evidence there was “every indication” responsibility lies with Hezbollah. He reaffirmed the US position by saying “Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks.”

Lebanon Expects Strong Israeli Retaliation:

Lebanon now is bracing itself for a strong Israeli retaliation. Hezbollah attacks, which began on October 8, the day after a Hamas killing spree in Israel that killed 20 Israelis, have been in retaliation for Lebanese support of Palestinians in Gaza. They’ve taken a horrific death toll, over 450 in Lebanon, of whom an estimated 350 have been the Hezbollah military arm, at least 100 of them civilians; and 23 civilians and 17 soldiers have been killed in Israel. Most of the Israeli attacks to date have centered on the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, which are the sites of Hezbollah activity. An advance into hitherto unravaged territories, such as parts of Beirut, would open up a potentially perilous new chapter.

Military Capability and Strategic Readiness of Hezbollah:

Hamas is considered to be a less lethal enemy than Hezbollah, which has been gearing up for another big confrontation with Israel since 2006, when it last fought. The estimated number of rockets and missiles belonging to the group is 150,000, and among this arsenal are precision-guided missiles in parts of ranges that could reach well inside Israeli territory, threatening to potentially overrun advanced air defense systems. The Israeli officials, on their part, have insisted that the attacks by the group cannot be countenanced, and they are under increasing political pressure for doing something that will make it possible for Lebanese from the north to return to their communities. Military commanders say that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), as yet fighting major operations against Hamas in Gaza, are ready for major operation against Hezbollah, but the terms are not defined.

Nasrallah’s Warning and Possible Regional Consequences:

Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said the group is not looking for full-on war with Israel, but he is certainly prepared for one. Last month, he said that only “a few per thousand of our weapons” had been used and that any future war would be without “boundaries.” A large-scale operation against Hezbollah could prompt involvement by other Iranian-backed militias in the region that are part of what Tehran terms the “Axis of Resistance”.

Diplomatic Initiatives to Avoid the War:

At this stage, the flames are unlikely to be put out, but a large-scale war is far from a certainty. Diplomats are trying hard to prevent a major blast. Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has asked for restraint from Hezbollah. A spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Oren Marmorstein, added that, “in fact, the only way” to prevent a conflagration was through full implementation of United Nations Resolution 1701, which called for the voluntary withdrawal of armed groups from southern Lebanon after the war in 2006; he said “now is the very last minute” war could be averted diplomatically.

Conclusion:

It remains a very delicate matter, with both sides walking the tightrope between confrontation and restraint. The world watches, with bated breath and the underlying hope that diplomatic solutions will triumph over the real threat of devastating conflict.