Germmny’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is celebrating a significant electoral victory in the eastern state of Thuringia, marking what its leaders are calling a “historic success.” The AfD secured almost a third of the vote, surpassing the conservative CDU by nine points and leaving Germany’s three ruling coalition parties far behind. This victory represents the first time since World War Two that the far-right has won a state parliament election in Germany, although the AfD faces slim chances of forming a government due to other parties’ reluctance to cooperate with it.
Electoral Results and Reactions
The AfD’s victory in Thuringia was led by the party’s controversial figure, Björn Höcke, who hailed the result as a “historic victory.” Despite his success, Höcke did not secure a direct mandate for the state parliament but will take a seat due to his position at the top of the party list. The party also performed strongly in neighboring Saxony, finishing just behind the CDU, which garnered 31.9% of the vote.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the election results as “bitter,” emphasizing that the AfD’s rise threatens to weaken Germany’s economy, divide society, and tarnish the country’s international reputation. He called on mainstream parties to form state governments that exclude the far-right. Meanwhile, Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, declared the outcome a “requiem” for Germany’s ruling coalition, asserting that stable governance is no longer possible without her party’s involvement.
Controversies Surrounding the AfD
Björn Höcke, a former history teacher, has been a polarizing figure within Germany, having been fined for using a Nazi slogan, though he denies doing so intentionally. His party, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence, faces widespread criticism for its stance on immigration and asylum. In Thuringia, 36% of voters under 30 supported the AfD, with immigration being the primary concern for many.
The election took place 85 years to the day after the outbreak of World War Two, prompting Holocaust survivor Charlotte Knobloch to express concern over Germany becoming “more unstable, colder and poorer” as a result of the AfD’s rise.
Challenges Ahead for the AfD
Despite its electoral success, the AfD faces significant challenges in translating votes into power. Without the cooperation of other parties, it cannot form a government in Thuringia, and the CDU has already ruled out working with the far-right. The AfD’s success in securing 32 seats in Thuringia’s 88-seat parliament, however, gives it a blocking minority on decisions requiring a two-thirds majority, including constitutional changes and judicial appointments.
The Bigger Picture
Sunday’s elections underscore the growing unpopularity of Germany’s ruling “traffic-light” coalition, comprised of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and liberal FDP. With federal elections only a year away, the AfD’s strong showing in Thuringia and Saxony could have far-reaching implications for the national political landscape.
As Germany braces for another election in Brandenburg in three weeks, the AfD remains ahead in the polls, with the SPD and CDU trailing closely. Meanwhile, protests against the AfD’s success have erupted in Thuringia, reflecting deep divisions within German society.
The AfD’s “historic” victory in Thuringia represents a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape, raising questions about the future of governance in the country. As the far-right continues to gain ground, the ruling coalition and other mainstream parties face increasing pressure to respond to the concerns of voters who are turning to the AfD for change.
Background on the AfD and its Leadership
- Björn Höcke: A key figure in the AfD, Höcke is known for his controversial statements and hardline views. He has been fined for using Nazi slogans, though he claims these were not intentional. Höcke has been a prominent voice in the party’s right-wing nationalist faction, often referred to as the “Flügel” (The Wing), which has been under observation by German domestic intelligence for its extremist tendencies.
- AfD’s Historical Context: The AfD was founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party but quickly shifted to an anti-immigration and nationalist platform, especially after the 2015 European migrant crisis. This shift attracted voters from both the conservative CDU/CSU and the far-right fringes, enabling the AfD to become the third-largest party in the Bundestag (federal parliament) after the 2017 federal election.
- Electoral Significance
- Thuringia’s Political Landscape: Thuringia, an eastern German state, has a history of being a stronghold for both the Left Party (Die Linke) and the far-right. The state’s political history is shaped by its division between rural areas that lean conservative or far-right and urban areas with stronger left-wing support.
- Implications of the AfD’s Victory: This election marks a watershed moment as the AfD gains its first outright victory in a state election. However, due to the “cordon sanitaire” (a political strategy where mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with extremist parties), the AfD is unlikely to govern. This victory is nonetheless symbolic and could embolden the party’s base ahead of the 2025 federal elections.
Reactions and Analysis
- Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Response: Scholz’s reaction reflects the anxiety within the ruling coalition about the AfD’s growing influence. His statement emphasizes the risk the AfD poses to Germany’s democratic values, economic stability, and international reputation. This response is part of a broader strategy to rally centrist voters against the far-right.
- Public Opinion and Voter Sentiment: The AfD’s success in Thuringia and Saxony is partly driven by voter frustration with the perceived failure of mainstream parties to address key issues such as immigration, economic disparity, and public safety. In Thuringia, a significant portion of young voters under 30 supported the AfD, indicating a generational shift in political allegiances.
- Protests and Opposition: The election results have sparked protests, particularly in urban areas like Erfurt. Many demonstrators, including students, express concern about the rise of far-right ideologies in a country with a historical responsibility to combat fascism. The protests highlight the deep societal divisions and the challenges of addressing extremist ideologies in modern Germany.
Broader European Context
- Far-Right Movements in Europe: The AfD’s rise is part of a broader trend across Europe, where far-right parties have gained ground in countries like Italy, France, and Sweden. These parties often capitalize on issues such as immigration, national sovereignty, and skepticism towards the European Union. The success of the AfD could have ripple effects across the continent, influencing elections and political strategies in other EU member states.
- Impact on Germany’s Federal Elections: With federal elections looming in 2025, the AfD’s strong performance in state elections could shift the national conversation towards issues that the far-right prioritizes, such as immigration, law and order, and national identity. The ruling coalition will need to address these concerns while maintaining its commitment to democratic values and inclusivity.
Potential Scenarios and Future Developments
- Coalition Dynamics: In the short term, the CDU may need to consider coalitions with left-leaning parties in Thuringia to prevent the AfD from gaining power. This could lead to uneasy alliances and further polarization within the electorate.
- Long-Term Implications: If the AfD continues to gain support, it could force mainstream parties to adopt tougher stances on immigration and security, or alternatively, to strengthen their defense of liberal democratic principles. The party’s influence could also lead to changes in the political landscape, such as the emergence of new alliances or the fragmentation of existing ones.