A week ago, the anticipation for the most recent World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, was that a boundary would be established beneath three years of energy shocks from the epidemic, lockdown, and war in Ukraine.
Inflation is declining, and central banks—including those in the UK—were supposed to begin lowering interest rates in 2024. Massive geopolitical developments have cast a shadow over the global economy over the past three years as many rolling and merging global crises have occurred.
The last few days’ developments demonstrate that the “polycrisis” is far from ended.
The capacity of the Houthis to disrupt global trade with comparatively inexpensive drones and weapons may be the most striking development to date. The purpose of the airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen was to maintain the flow of economic recovery and trade through the straits that connect to the Suez Canal.
However, because there is now a greater chance of a wider conflict in the region, oil prices rose on Friday. RAF jets have attacked targets in Aden as a result of the Gaza issue in the last three months. What is going to occur in three months?
It so happens that the World Economic Forum is the ideal forum for this kind of fundamental diplomatic dilemma. Founded in 1971 and held annually in the Swiss ski town of Davos, the conference brings together leading figures from academics and charity as well as international commerce and politics.
Where else might one find the French President Emmanuel Macron, the British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the Israeli President, the Saudi Foreign Minister, and the Prime Minister of Qatar all at one place at the same time?
Given the dire circumstances in the Middle East, little is expected, yet this is the kind of setting where unexpected and productive discussions can happen in private.
Ever since the epidemic, Davos exuded an air of ruin. G7 leaders were becoming less common. Rishi Sunak is not going this week and has not gone. This year, with elections taking place all around the world, the US delegation is especially small. Republicans in particular have mixed feelings about the incident.
A possible presidential contender from the Republican Party, Ron DeSantis, referred to Davos as a Chinese-run “threat to freedom” last year. Any policies that came out of the meeting, according to the governor of Florida, were “dead on arrival” in his state. He believed that such language would be well received in the presidential primaries, which begin this week, according to the consensus at Davos.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is in attendance and will be aware of the “Ukraine fatigue” that is making its way to Washington, DC, and spreading to emerging nations.
In the UK, some businesspeople seem prepared to show more than a passing interest in the Labour Party during current election season.
UK corporate executives and foreign investors will be tossing up between Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
The World Economic Forum is the ideal place for business investors to voice concerns about Labour’s economic objectives, such as the proposed increase in investment spending. I remember the flurry of talks with foreign leaders that opposition leader David Cameron had right before taking the helm as prime minister in 2010.
A pushback has emerged against aspects of the event’s customary corporate do-gooding, including investors’ recent attention on businesses’ social and environmental initiatives.
To put it bluntly, during the last two years, industries that extract hydrocarbons, emit carbon, and manufacture weapons have experienced enormous gains.
The optimism will stem from the belief that tumultuous geopolitics can be resolved in some way short of another energy shock.
Artificial intelligence is going to be ubiquitous. Microsoft, which is currently competing with Apple to become the largest firm in the world, is presenting ChatGPT creator Sam Altman, the boss of Open AI, to global corporate and political leaders.
Thus, it is hard to imagine a better time for a conference like the World Economic Forum this week, especially at the beginning of a delicate year marked by chaos and uncertainty in international politics and diplomacy, as well as doubts about economic recovery after years of severe catastrophe.
You have to move in the direction of the light at the end of the tunnel. It won’t be simple.