There is a problem for Ron DeSantis. Following years of speculation that he may unseat former President Donald Trump, the governor of Florida finished a distant second in the Iowa caucuses. Yes, he managed to stave off a rather unexpected late onslaught from Nikki Haley, but among Republican voters, he still lagged behind Trump by about 30 percentage points. And he has an even more difficult road ahead of him.
Ron DeSantis is having an issue. The governor of Florida came in far behind former President Donald Trump in the Iowa caucuses, despite years of rumors that he may defeat him. Yes, he stopped Nikki Haley’s very surprising late assault, but he still behind Trump by almost 30 percentage points among Republicans. And the road ahead of him is even more challenging.
Not that they didn’t try. DeSantis made significant financial investments in the Hawkeye State and gave special attention to hiring campaign staff and expanding field operations there, despite his campaign’s financial difficulties. Along with his hustle, he managed to get some significant local endorsements, such as those from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and evangelical power broker Bob Vander Plaats. Super PACs that supported his candidacy threw enormous sums of money at advertisements and door-knocking campaigns, believing that this would be the best way to stop the Trump train. However, one of those PACs, Never Back Down, increased its ad buy plans in the weeks leading up to the election after realizing DeSantis’ candidacy was already doomed. The outcomes on Monday allayed its fears.
It’s difficult to see where DeSantis can win if he couldn’t win in Iowa, where he put everything on the line and where voters are very receptive to candidates who aren’t the front-runner. He will most likely lose badly in New Hampshire, where he has been trailing both Hayley and Trump in recent surveys, with an average of only 6% of the vote. (He was even trailing former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who withdrew from the contest on Wednesday.) It is bleak in South Carolina as well, where DeSantis is polling far lower than both Trump and Haley. DeSantis has nothing to cheer about in terms of the map.
DeSantis’s lackluster performance highlights his serious charm issue. Iowa is well known for letting politicians display their talents in retail politics. In order to keep a low profile and gradually win over voters, presidential candidates spend a lot of time engaging with the public, hosting small town hall-style events, and attending community activities.
DeSantis lived in Iowa for the required period of time, but the most common impression that surfaced was that he is incredibly awkward. In an article headlined “Awkward Americans see themselves in Ron DeSantis,” the Washington Post reporter characterizes DeSantis as standing “ramrod straight, taking gulps of beer and checking the time on his phone and telling potential voters that normally he would already be asleep” during his attempt to court voters in a diner. DeSantis took the opposite route with his lack of interpersonal skills, while former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, was able to use his skill as a speaker to emerge from obscurity and win in the Democratic caucuses in Iowa in 2020.
There has been conjecture that DeSantis’ winning strategy involves snatching up Trump supporters in the event that Trump suffers a catastrophic defeat in his criminal prosecutions. As of now, there are no indications that anything short of a jail term might weaken Trump’s support, and even if it did, it’s not clear whether or not that would affect him in the eyes of his supporters. (Trump may insist on continuing to compete for the Republican nomination because there is no legal barrier to him seeking the presidency while incarcerated.) Furthermore, it is no longer appropriate to assume that DeSantis is the GOP’s nominee to replace Trump, as Haley is currently tied with him in national surveys and appears to be stronger than him in the impending primary.
DeSantis could claim that remaining in the campaign would allow him to continue lobbying for his ideas to be included in the final Republican Party platform if he had distinctive political beliefs or a distinct policy vision. DeSantis is a Trump impersonator, so one has to wonder why he would continue to run in the election considering that Republican voters have continually turned against him.