Don Bacon (left), Anthony D’Esposito (center), and Nick LaLota (right) are three of the vulnerable legislators who supported the impeachment inquiry with a unanimous Republican vote.
A formal hearing to impeach President Joe Biden was supported by all 221 Republicans in the US House of Representatives, one of the final votes before members left for Christmas vacation.
While they were able to secure the unanimity of support they needed, certain lawmakers were more at risk politically than others. It will now be necessary for vulnerable Republicans in divided districts to justify their backing of a probe that a large portion of their people may view as very political.
The 17 Republicans who represent districts that President Biden won in 2020 were approached by BBC News. These House members, according to political analysts, pollsters, and Democratic opponents, are most likely to lose their seats before the next US election in 2024.
The way these House members tread carefully on the political tightrope around Mr. Biden’s impeachment investigation could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives in the upcoming election, they said. With Republicans holding a tenuous majority in the House, it presents a unique difficulty.
“They’re already up against it in a swing district, so it’s a problem,” Republican pollster Dan Judy of North Star Opinion Research stated.
Republicans have been investigating Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, for years, accusing him of leveraging his father’s fame to pursue unethical or illegal business deals. This has led to the campaign to impeach Mr. Biden.
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Even while the Justice Department has accused Hunter Biden for tax offenses, the president does not appear to have been found guilty of any connected misconduct despite months of Republican probes.
Mr. Judy forewarned that voters who lean swing or independent, whom his party wants to win over, would wonder if “an impeachment inquiry is the best use of the government’s finite time and resources”.
When questioned about the vote, the majority of the lawmakers seemed to comprehend that calculus and either issued cautious words or said nothing at all. Those who raised their voices presented their vote as one in favor of giving the House more investigative authority rather than as a resounding endorsement of impeaching Mr. Biden.
Rep. Young Kim of California said in a statement to BBC News that “this inquiry allows relevant committees to get more information on serious allegations, follow the facts, and be transparent with the American people.
According to a statement provided to BBC News, Representative Young Kim of California stated that “this inquiry allows relevant committees to get more information on serious allegations, follow the facts, and be transparent with the American people.”
A divided state of New York
The stakes could not be higher than they are among the representatives of New York. Five Republicans presently have state representation in districts that were won by Mr. Biden.
Republicans gained ground in New York State in 2022 as a result of suburban voters’ dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and crime, which they attributed to Joe Biden. In 2024, these freshly elected lawmakers will have to contend with newly redrew districts that are anticipated to favor Democrats.
It’s a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” situation for them because of that, according to state Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky.
Proving that dichotomy, one of the New York lawmakers, Rep. Mike Lawler, hewed to the argument made by party leaders. They had won over holdouts by insisting that this vote would put investigators in the strongest legal position to gather evidence and witness testimony.
“Is it enough to impeach the president today? No. Not for me,” Mr Lawler said of the inquiry in a statement issued by his office.
Rep. Mike Lawler stated that while he thought an investigation was necessary, he did not yet support impeachment.
However, the Republican congressman claimed that “the White House’s refusal to turn over additional information” was what had “necessitated a more formal approach to get the whole truth”.
However, Stavisky cautioned that “when either party gets out too far ahead of their skis, there’s a natural tendency on the part of the electorate to revert to the mean” .
Survey results on impeachment are varied.
There is still disagreement among Americans over who might be on the wrong side of the issue.
An October Associated Press and National Opinion Research Center poll revealed that about 35% of American citizens believed that Mr. Biden had broken the law, while another 33% agreed that Mr. Biden had acted unethically but not illegally.
However, the answers are distinctly partisan, with two thirds of Republican voters thinking that President Biden committed an illegal act in connection with his son’s business transactions. On the other hand, nearly 60% of Democrats think the president is innocent.
According to the same study, only 33% of Americans currently support the Republicans’ impeachment investigation, with major party-based differences.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which aims to elect Republican members of the House, declined to comment on the record regarding the potential impact on its candidates; but, in an email to the BBC, a representative cited the AP’s polling.
Mr Judy and other Republican strategists emphasized that it was premature to write any political obituaries for these House members just yet, despite the political risks.
“With over a year to go, this vote in and of itself is not going to move the needle next year on these races,” he stated.
