Don Bacon (left), Anthony D’Esposito (center), and Nick LaLota (right) are three of the vulnerable legislators who supported the impeachment inquiry with a unanimous Republican vote.
A formal hearing to impeach President Joe Biden was supported by all 221 Republicans in the US House of Representatives, one of the final votes before members left for Christmas vacation.
While they were able to secure the unanimity of support they needed, certain lawmakers were more at risk politically than others. It will now be necessary for vulnerable Republicans in divided districts to justify their backing of a probe that a large portion of their people may view as very political. News reached out to the 17 Republicans who represent the 2020 presidential winning districts. These House members, according to political analysts, pollsters, and Democratic opponents, are most likely to lose their seats before the next US election in 2024.
The way these House members tread carefully on the political tightrope around Mr. Biden’s impeachment investigation could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives in the upcoming election, they said. With Republicans holding a tenuous majority in the House, it presents a unique difficulty.
“They’re already up against it in a swing district, so it’s a problem,” Republican pollster Dan Judy of North Star Opinion Research stated.
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Republicans have been investigating Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, for years, which is the reason behind the push to impeach him.
Lawmaker Young Kim declared she would “follow the facts” while the Biden investigation proceeded.
In 2020, Ms. Kim narrowly defeated Democrat Joe Biden to win her Southern California seat; Mr. Biden carried her district by over 2%.
Following the vote, the Democratic Party group responsible for regaining control of the US House launched targeted attacks on every senator who supported the impeachment investigation. Among those targeted was Ms. Kim.
Dan Gottlieb, the DCC’s spokesperson, said in a statement, “With today’s vote, Kim just told the American people that delivering for them doesn’t matter as much as doing Donald Trump’s bidding.”
A divided state of New York
The stakes could not be higher than they are among the representatives of New York. Currently, the state is represented by five Republicans. Republicans gained ground in New York State in 2022 as a result of suburban voters’ dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and crime, which they attributed to Joe Biden. In 2024, these freshly elected lawmakers will have to contend with newly redrew districts that are anticipated to favor Democrats.
It’s a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” situation for them because of that, according to state Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky.
Rep. Mike Lawler, a legislator from New York, demonstrated this contradiction by adhering to the party leaders’ position. By arguing that this vote would give investigators the best possible legal position to obtain evidence and witness testimony, they were able to win over dissenters.
“Is the president’s impeachment sufficient today? No. Not for me,” stated Mr. Lawler.
Rep. Mike Lawler stated that while he thought an investigation was necessary, he did not yet support impeachment. However, the Republican congressman claimed that “the White House’s refusal to turn over additional information” was what had “necessitated a more formal approach to get the whole truth”.
However, Stavisky cautioned that “when either party gets out too far ahead of their skis, there’s a natural tendency on the part of the electorate to revert to the mean” .
Survey results on impeachment are varied.
There is still disagreement among Americans over who might be on the wrong side of the issue.
An October Associated Press and National Opinion Research Center poll revealed that about 35% of American citizens believed that Mr. Biden had broken the law, while another 33% agreed that Mr. Biden had acted unethically but not illegally.
However, those answers are distinctly divided by party, with two thirds of Republican respondents According to the same study, only 33% of Americans currently support the Republicans’ impeachment investigation, with major party-based differences.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which aims to elect Republican members of the House, declined to comment on the record regarding the potential impact on its candidates; but, in an email to the BBC, a representative cited the AP’s polling.
Mr Judy and other Republican strategists emphasized that it was premature to write any political obituaries for these House members just yet, despite the political risks.
“With over a year to go, this vote in and of itself is not going to move the needle next year on these races,” he stated.
