The US government intends to modify vehicle pollution regulations in a way that would force automakers to market a greater number of electric vehicles. By 2032, around two thirds of all new cars sold in the United States would need to be electric.
According to Matthias Heck, an industry analyst at Moody’s, electric vehicles would have achieved that kind of market share sometime beyond 2035 if not for these regulations. He claimed that although the EPA’s aims are achievable, it will not be simple and significant financial outlays will be required. Heck noted that the plan is still only that—a proposal—and that it may change before it is approved.
The infrastructure for charging as well as the cars themselves will undergo significant modification over the course of the next ten years. As battery technology advances and costs come down, consumers will become increasingly interested in electric vehicles. Government incentives will also be helpful, such as those provided by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act.
The electric vehicles of almost ten years from now will not be the same as those currently available, according to Consumer Reports policy expert for transportation and energy Chris Harto. Furthermore, he noted that although the market share of EVs is now two thirds, EVs won’t suddenly take over American highways. According to him, eighty percent of cars on the road in 2032 will still be gas-powered, but buying a new car will be done differently.
In comparison to a gas-powered car, “it’s going to be the same price or cheaper,” he stated, citing the concept of past cost parity.
According to Harto, owners will benefit from much lower running costs, longer driving ranges, and faster and more convenient rapid charging. According to Moody’s Heck, next-generation EV batteries should be available in a few years and will have a 30% longer charging life and a 30% quicker recharging time.
Therefore, Harto predicted that electric cars won’t be a particularly difficult sell to buyers who are merely searching for the best automobile at a reasonable price, especially when combined with enhanced charging networks, which is something else that can be anticipated over that time.
By 2032, there will be additional electric car models available. As per Elizabeth Krear, vice president of JD Power’s electric vehicle business, approximately 40% of the gas vehicle models that Americans can purchase now have “EV equivalents” available. Currently, the market share of electricity is 8.5%.
Regarding the likelihood that EVs would account for two thirds of the US auto market by 2032, Krear remained silent. However, Krear predicts that in 2026, a mere three years from now, there would be “EV equivalents” for 75% of the cars that Americans purchase, and that the market share will have already tripled to 27%. In California, where there is a greater demand for and availability of EV models, the market share of EVs is predicted to surpass two thirds by 2032.
According to Bloomberg NEF analyst Corey Cantor, California is close to achieving its target of only selling completely electric and plug-in hybrid cars by 2035. Therefore, by 2032, California should have a market share of over 80% for plug-in cars, including plug-in hybrids. California’s size alone makes it a significant contributor to the US car market as a whole.
He claimed that California’s impact on the entire nation is actually advancing things to a point where they might be a year ahead of schedule if California weren’t there.
Cantor stated that while achieving a two-thirds EV market share by 2032 is not a given, it should be doable.
Additional support will come from the growing number of automakers joining the EV market, according to Ivan Drury, an Edmunds.com industry expert. Many auto shoppers have a strong brand loyalty to their chosen automobile.
“Just because something is an EV or has X-Y-Z piece of technology doesn’t mean that everyone is willing to jump ship,” Drury said. “I believe that having a brand like Toyota cultivates a devoted customer base who demand nothing but Toyotas.”
The BZ4X SUV is the only electric vehicle that Toyota currently sells in the US, but more are on the horizon. Although Honda, a well-known Japanese brand, does not currently sell EVs, the firm is preparing its Ohio plants to produce EV vehicles in the future. Next year, Honda plans to launch its first electric vehicle. In the next year or two, General Motors will also release a variety of electric vehicle types.
According to Drury, GM by itself will be a reliable indicator of how prepared the US market is for electric vehicles in the next years. That carmaker will start offering models in a variety of market niches and price points. By 2035, it plans to offer only electric passenger vehicles.
A statement expressing skepticism about the goals and requesting collaboration from various government agencies was put on the website of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an industry group that comprises the majority of the major automakers operating in the nation.