In the history of the Iowa Caucuses, this triumph may have been the least unexpected.
In the first round of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump triumphed handily, with a margin that was ultimately as comfortable as the surveys had been forecasting for months.
The former president was rejoicing on Monday night after his supporters overcame bitter freezing conditions to give him the victory, but dominating the vote count was not the only reason.
The not-Trump vote is still split since neither of Mr. Trump’s primary opponents, Nikki Haley nor Ron DeSantis, emerged as a front-runner. In the meantime, Vivek Ramaswamy, his most ideologically comparable opponent, declared he was withdrawing and would support Mr. Trump on Tuesday in New Hampshire.
Here’s a closer look at why the Iowa results mattered so much in the presidential contest.
This party is still that of Donald Trump.
The victory of Mr. Trump in Iowa was unprecedented in history. In all 99 of Iowa’s counties, he received the most votes, with the exception of one, which he lost by one vote.
Before now, no candidate had won an Iowa race by a margin more than 12 points; Mr. Trump’s lead is expected to exceed 30%, and he may even secure the support of the vast majority of the party’s registered Republicans.
After nearly all ballots were tallied, Mr. Trump received 51% of the vote, followed by Mr. DeSantis with 21% and Ms. Haley with 19%.
His attempt at an electoral comeback has so far been effective, which can be explained in part by a study of Iowans who turned out to caucus sites on Monday night.
According to CBS News, the BBC’s US partner, over half of Republican caucus attendees identify as supporters of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.
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Additionally, Mr. Trump’s win was widespread. He won over men and women, young and old. Additionally, he won over hard-right conservative and evangelical supporters, whom he had trouble gaining over in 2016.
Generally, unsuccessful presidential candidates disappear from the public eye, their legacy forever marred by their defeat. But Mr. Trump has succeeded in persuading Republicans—both nationally and in Iowa—that he was victorious.
A significant portion of Iowans who attended the caucuses informed CBS that they thought Mr. Trump had won the 2020 presidential contest; among Trump supporters, this belief rose to 90%.
The election of Trump is an amazing turnabout.
Although it is undeniable that Mr. Trump is the leader of the Republican Party, his victory in this election is remarkable in the greater scheme of contemporary American politics.
He completed his first term as president three years ago amid controversy over his loss to Democrat Joe Biden, which culminated in the Capitol riot on January 6. Because of his deeds, he is being tried twice for crimes.
He has already made a big stride toward representing the Republican Party as the nominee for president in November after winning the Iowa caucuses.
In the Iowa Caucuses, DeSantis defeats Haley for second place.
Vivek Ramaswamy withdraws and gives Trump his support.
Trump still needs to put in more effort to become the face of the Republican Party. Polls indicate that his once-dominant lead has shrunk to almost single digits in New Hampshire, where he will have a more formidable fight from Ms. Haley the next week.
Nevertheless, he remains the clear front-runner in the contest, having received the support of actual Republican voters in his first test.
From Iowa, no obvious competitor surfaced.
The primary electoral suspense heading into Monday’s Iowa caucuses was centered around the candidate who would finish second to Mr. Trump. Ultimately, Mr. DeSantis emerged victorious as the runner-up.
Despite devoting a significant amount of time and resources to Iowa, the Florida governor narrowly defeated Ms. Haley, so it’s not really much of an accomplishment.
The outcome, together with Mr. DeSantis’s promise to continue running, won’t produce the kind of definitive outcome that would enable a face-to-face meeting between him and Trump in the coming days.
As the Republican primary process gets underway, Trump’s divide-and-conquer tactic is still in full force, which could actually make his victory even more potent.
Since Mr. Trump is the second choice of Mr. Ramaswamy’s followers, the former president will have an easier time winning the nomination thanks to the one contender who did withdraw, Mr. Ramaswamy. Even if he only received approximately 8% of the vote in Iowa, every ounce of support matters, and Mr. Ramaswamy’s endorsement will provide Mr. Trump additional publicity to help him win in New Hampshire.
The former president will be able to intensify his attacks on President Biden as a result of the Iowa outcome, something he enthusiastically did during his victory address on Monday night. Democrats, for their part, appear to be looking forward to the confrontation and the chance to take advantage of what they perceive to be Mr. Trump’s weaknesses.
But momentum and a victorious aura will be bestowed upon the former president by a string of commanding victories, beginning in Iowa. When the fall general election comes around, Mr. Trump might show to be a more difficult opponent than they had anticipated or hoped.