Important Points
Following the epidemic, Disney’s animation companies have found it difficult to produce a profit at the box office; in contrast, Universal’s DreamWorks and Illumination studios have not stopped producing quality films.
- On Friday, Universal’s “Migration,” a film from its Illumination studio, will be released in theaters. Forecasters estimate the opening to be $25 million.
Disney lost the top spot in animation. It has been acquired by Universal.
“Migration” opens on Friday, and the studio wants to tighten its hold.
It is anticipated that “Migration,” a humorous story about a family of New England ducks who relocate from their pond to Jamaica and wind up in New York City, will bring in $25 million when it opens domestically. With a more cautious outlook, Universal projects that the film will launch to a $10–$15 million gross in ticket sales.
That’s not as much as the recent “Minions” movie and Illumination/Universal’s $100 million+ debuts for “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” but it is about the same as the studio and DreamWorks Animation’s “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” which played in theaters for several months and brought in almost $500 million worldwide.
“Migration,” which has received positive reviews and good word-of-mouth, will need to be assessed more on its long-term performance than on its big weekend debut, according to Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
“Wish,” Disney’s most recent animated picture, did not resonate with viewers. The movie has made a total of $55.2 million in the United States and Canada after earning $31.6 million domestically over the course of the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. The movie has made $127.1 million worldwide. The $200 million movie budget does not include marketing expenses.
In contrast, the week before Thanksgiving release of “Trolls Band Together” brought in $30 million during its three-day premiere and about $180 million globally. The movie’s $95 million budget did not include marketing expenses.
Disney representatives did not immediately reply to a request for comment from CNBC.
How Disney lost the top spot
Disney launched its animated film empire in the early 20th century with “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” in 1937. “The Little Mermaid” and “Beauty and the Beast” helped the company maintain its dominant position into the 1980s and 1990s.
Afterwards, it bought Pixar, which brought in billions of dollars for the business through box office revenue alongside Walt Disney Animation.
“Disney has dominated the world of feature animation for decades, and for good reason,” Dergarabedian stated. “They established the benchmark.”
The Covid epidemic then broke out. Disney tried to fill the void left by the closure of theaters by pushing its creative teams to the limit and releasing films that were in theaters during the epidemic directly to digital platforms.
Even after Disney decided to bring its movies back to theaters, the move taught parents to look for new Disney releases on streaming services rather than in physical theaters. Disney’s problems were made worse by the prevailing perception among viewers that the company’s content had become unduly existential and overly focused on social themes that were out of the realm of young children.
Consequently, since 2019, no Pixar or Walt Disney Animation Disney animated film has brought in more than $480 million at the worldwide box office.
“I believe that Disney is no longer given the benefit of the doubt,” stated Josh Brown, the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and a regular contributor to CNBC. “And unlike previous generations, people won’t go to the movies just because it’s the newest Disney film.”
Appeal to all
DreamWorks and Illumination, Universal’s two animation divisions, have prospered in the interim.
DreamWorks’ “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” topped at $485 million following its holiday 2022 launch, Illumination’s “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” which debuted in 2022, brought in $942 million worldwide, and Illumination’s “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” reached more than $1.3 billion in 2023.
The success of “Super Mario” at the box office even impressed the Magic Kingdom. During the business’s fiscal second-quarter results call in May, Disney CEO Bob Iger gave the competing studio high marks.
However, as more people have started going to the movies again since the outbreak, more are choosing Universal’s offerings.
The sole goal of Illumination Animation, in the words of senior box office analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations, is amusement. Family audiences enjoy the sweetness and simplicity of their animated films. Disney has been losing sight of the simplicity of the cartoon genre lately and occasionally tries to cram too much into its films.
Not to add, Universal has been bringing back time and time again beloved stories and characters from the past. Actually, only three of the previous ten DreamWorks films have been unique storylines, and Illumination hasn’t made a nonfranchise picture since 2016.
In contrast, just one of the previous eight films from a Disney animation studio, “Lightyear,” a “Toy Story” spinoff that will be released in 2022, is an original picture. In the past, Disney has prospered by introducing fresh animation content to viewers; however, in the aftermath of the epidemic, it has faced difficulties.
Disney’s live-action theatrical productions, which have mainly depended on established brands, employ the exact opposite approach. Consider the motion pictures from the Marvel series, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “The Little Mermaid,” and “Haunted Mansion.”
Disney will continue to produce sequels, according to Iger, but he also acknowledged that the business needs to be more picky about the brands it chooses to bring back.
During The New York Times’ DealBook Summit in late November, Iger stated, “I think there has to be a reason to make them, you have to have a good story.”
Drawing parents and children in with recurring characters and environments is a simple strategy in animation.
According to Peter Csathy, founder and chair of advising firm Creative Media, “they have high confidence that these characters and related stories will be high quality, entertaining, and ‘brand safe’ for their kids because they have seen these characters and related stories before.” “And they might even look forward to animated franchise films just as much as their children do.”
With the development of dependable franchise properties such as Trolls and Minions, Universal is now able to launch a new movie like “Migration” with considerable influence. Parents
People are more inclined to go watch the movie if they see that it is produced by the same company that released previous beloved films in theaters.
It’s what Pixar accomplished for almost thirty years with such success.
“I believe that people are already familiar with Illumination thanks to the films “Minions,” “Secret Life of Pets,” and “Sing,” according to Bock. Additionally, that awareness will improve “Migration’s” flight pattern, probably prolonging its stay at the box office. That’s essential. The protracted performance.
Thus far, critics have largely given “Migration” positive reviews. If people enjoy the movie and tell others about it, it might have a strong run and elevate Universal’s animation portfolio.
“Those at the top of the game, like Illumination, hold the promise and possibility of becoming the next go-to brand for quality animation after Pixar,” Csathy said. “The kids animation market opportunity will never grow old.”
“Inside Out 2” from Disney and Pixar will be released in June of next year, while “Despicable Me 4” from Universal and Illumination will open in theaters a few weeks later in July.
