A formal hearing to impeach President Joe Biden was supported by all 221 Republicans in the US House of Representatives, one of the final votes before members left for Christmas vacation.
While they were able to secure the unanimity of support they needed, certain lawmakers were more at risk politically than others. It will now be necessary for vulnerable Republicans in divided districts to justify their backing of a probe that a large portion of their people may view as very political.
The 17 Republicans who represent districts that President Biden won in 2020 were approached by BBC News. These House members, according to political analysts, pollsters, and Democratic opponents, are most likely to lose their seats before the next US election in 2024.
The way these House members tread carefully on the political tightrope around Mr. Biden’s impeachment investigation could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives in the upcoming election, they said. With Republicans holding a tenuous majority in the House, it presents a unique difficulty.
“They’re already up against it in a swing district, so it’s a problem,” Republican pollster Dan Judy of North Star Opinion Research stated.
Republicans have been investigating Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, for years, accusing him of leveraging his father’s fame to pursue unethical or illegal business deals. This has led to the campaign to impeach Mr. Biden.
- What is known about the Biden impeachment investigation;
- The risks to Biden as Republicans intensify their efforts to remove him from office
Even while the Justice Department has accused Hunter Biden for tax offences, the president does not appear to have been found guilty of any associated misconduct despite months of Republican probes.
Mr. Judy forewarned that voters who lean swing or independent, whom his party wants to win over, would wonder if “an impeachment inquiry is the best use of the government’s finite time and resources”.
When questioned about the vote, the majority of the lawmakers seemed to comprehend that calculus and either issued cautious words or said nothing at all. Those who raised their voices presented their vote as one in favour of giving the House more investigative authority rather than as a resounding endorsement of impeaching Mr. Biden.
” Rep. Young Kim of California said in a statement to BBC News that “this inquiry allows relevant committees to get more information on serious allegations, follow the facts, and be transparent with the American people.”
Following the vote, the Democratic Party group responsible for regaining control of the US House launched targeted attacks on every senator who supported the impeachment investigation. Among those targeted was Ms. Kim.
Dan Gottlieb, the DCC’s spokesperson, said in a statement, “With today’s vote, Kim just told the American people that delivering for them doesn’t matter as much as doing Donald Trump’s bidding.”
A divided state of New York
The stakes could not be higher than they are among the representatives of New York. Five Republicans presently have state representation in districts that were won by Mr. Biden.
Republicans gained ground in New York State in 2022 as a result of suburban voters’ dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and crime, which they attributed to Joe Biden. In 2024, these freshly elected lawmakers will have to contend with newly redrew districts that are anticipated to favour Democrats.
It’s a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” situation for them because of that, according to state Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky.
Rep. Mike Lawler, a legislator from New York, demonstrated this contradiction by adhering to the party leaders’ position. By arguing that this vote would give investigators the best possible legal position to obtain evidence and witness testimony, they were able to win over dissenters.
“Is the president’s impeachment sufficient today? No. In a statement sent by his office, Mr. Lawler responded to the question, saying, “Not for me.”
However, the Republican congressman claimed that “the White House’s refusal to turn over additional information” was what had “necessitated a more formal approach to get the whole truth”.
However, Stavisky cautioned that “when either party gets out too far ahead of their skis, there’s a natural tendency on the part of the electorate to revert to the mean” .
Voter polling mixed on impeachment
There is still disagreement among Americans over who might be on the wrong side of the issue.
An October Associated Press and National Opinion Research Centre poll revealed that about 35% of American citizens believed that Mr. Biden had broken the law, while another 33% agreed that Mr. Biden had acted unethically but not illegally.
However, the answers are distinctly partisan, with two thirds of Republican voters thinking that President Biden committed an illegal act in connection with his son’s business transactions. On the other hand, nearly 60% of Democrats think the president is innocent.
According to the same study, only 33% of Americans currently support the Republicans’ impeachment investigation, with major party-based differences.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which aims to elect Republican members of the House, declined to comment on the record regarding the potential impact on its candidates; but, in an email to the BBC, a representative cited the AP’s polling.
Mr Judy and other Republican strategists emphasised that it was premature to write any political obituaries for these House members just yet, despite the political risks.
“With over a year to go, this vote in and of itself is not going to move the needle next year on these races,” he stated.
